Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8976

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.18 p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8975, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8976
    24 Oct 2026, 20:05 UTC

    LILRB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLILRB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered90e28b8e1e27c826

    discovery-0.73 p=0.025 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out -0.18 p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    f235dbe326b8ae757107999a…
    follows 3c31aabb003c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8976: LILRB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LILRB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.