Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8952

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.07 p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8951, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8952
    24 Oct 2026, 19:34 UTC

    PSMA1

    microglia, braak

    predictionPSMA1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfe05b617c35e47c5

    discovery-0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.07 p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    52ff25d7f100a37d6488172a…
    follows f125f3b8a26b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8952: PSMA1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMA1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.