Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8941

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.027; held-out +0.06 p 0.869). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8940, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8941
    24 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC

    ZNF598

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF598 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered52efcff34d86c20b

    discovery-0.73 p=0.027 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.027; held-out +0.06 p 0.869)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0f8243e2166c8bd42118a40d…
    follows 14f87fa165c4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8941: ZNF598 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF598 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.