Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8931

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8930, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8931
    24 Oct 2026, 19:04 UTC

    MME

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMME in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd581214312c64570

    discovery+0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication+0.89 p=0.0012 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    48733e588bd17ffcc1100caa…
    follows e3bfc30c91da…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8931: MME in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.82, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MME in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.