Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8922

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.122). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8921, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8922
    24 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

    MAN2C1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAN2C1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd3f3b4db30aa3ac

    discovery-0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.122)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    009329f3431c7b71e1cca7f8…
    follows a1c59c446b7d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8922: MAN2C1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAN2C1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.