Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8890

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8889, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8890
    24 Oct 2026, 18:12 UTC

    SERPINI1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSERPINI1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcb3c5abd7e299d52

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.822 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a4966b0ebcf3b4ce40c99fa…
    follows 4b0a06ae3fa5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8890: SERPINI1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.19 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINI1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.