Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8878

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8877, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8878
    24 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC

    MAPK11

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPK11 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3d9bbc8d4c54fe5

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    49ddba86f0f3d1ab10048384…
    follows d8fb7784b220…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8878: MAPK11 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK11 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.