Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0880

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.19 p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 879, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0880
    17 Oct 2026, 08:50 UTC

    WIPF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWIPF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda213f6b72af83e14

    discovery-0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.19 p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c1326269dcf7555fc2e803b4…
    follows a5c3d99022ff…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0880: WIPF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WIPF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.