Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8785

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8784, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8785
    24 Oct 2026, 15:51 UTC

    PHGDH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHGDH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9e0b39ea02ac16b2

    discovery-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c28bee39c5d3f09da37c43f1…
    follows 170f85b2f7ef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8785: PHGDH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHGDH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.