Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8777

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8776, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8777
    24 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC

    SFXN3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSFXN3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b6659ce94f95e84

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3721cae3248c51b20b58596d…
    follows 3135c91df205…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8777: SFXN3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SFXN3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.