Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0874

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.16 p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 873, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0874
    17 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    GPR65

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR65 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd183a3a620bd5d57

    discovery+0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.019; held-out +0.16 p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d5ebd39fe424a9809b827870…
    follows 437d60fdc117…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0874: GPR65 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0049, n 18) vs +0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR65 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GPR65 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured