Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8736

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.114). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8735, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8736
    24 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC

    APBA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPBA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered62d46bc213775cca

    discovery-0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.114)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3fece6f817f355df41ee6cc9…
    follows 335bafc3731c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8736: APBA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.21 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APBA2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up APBA2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.55 p 0.051 (needs p < 2.4e-4)