Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8705

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8704, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8705
    24 Oct 2026, 13:59 UTC

    CASK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered00cfb069941978fc

    discovery-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d76adfcde175835f2d3c0daa…
    follows 0a307a1955f2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8705: CASK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.