Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8666

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.805). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8665, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8666
    24 Oct 2026, 13:06 UTC

    SLC15A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC15A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered02a46cb31815c8bb

    discovery-0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.10, p 0.805)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    061a420fb7c67badc860e43e…
    follows 6c7bef902dd5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8666: SLC15A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC15A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.