Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8527

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8526, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8527
    24 Oct 2026, 09:54 UTC

    NPHS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNPHS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede604d5a6baada3d8

    discovery-0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    replication+0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fdf06b85d1d3926c9748a7ea…
    follows 2839c0094fca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8527: NPHS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NPHS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.