Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8494

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8493, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8494
    24 Oct 2026, 09:12 UTC

    ART4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionART4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8028f1ff31d86739

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6bdac725f7accbbce50017cf…
    follows 101cadf9d7af…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8494: ART4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ART4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.