Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8480

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8479, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8480
    24 Oct 2026, 08:53 UTC

    CUL9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCUL9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered15c91d5532acedc7

    discovery-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2af05a1c26cc4a7b31b9a6e9…
    follows 5ca05bd0195a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8480: CUL9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to +0.00. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CUL9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.