Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8459

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8458, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8459
    24 Oct 2026, 08:26 UTC

    CCL4L2

    microglia, braak

    predictionCCL4L2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9fa0376fc7aec332

    discovery+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e0751209fc241e3fd2020df…
    follows a1a852a7e900…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8459: CCL4L2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCL4L2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.