Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8433

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out +0.26 p 0.507). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8432, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8433
    24 Oct 2026, 07:53 UTC

    SELPLG

    microglia, braak

    predictionSELPLG in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede74913cc96072520

    discovery-0.82 p=0.0066 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.507 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.82 p 0.0066; held-out +0.26 p 0.507)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    48501257bd0279ac34fd8379…
    follows 3aeec8a49f50…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8433: SELPLG in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELPLG in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.