Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8417

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8416, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8417
    24 Oct 2026, 07:33 UTC

    NRG3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNRG3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d8b592dfff11c71

    discovery+0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    05dfa31478e07a16d06acc61…
    follows 76cb01d30b82…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8417: NRG3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NRG3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.