Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8395

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.233). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8394, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8395
    24 Oct 2026, 07:03 UTC

    TAP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTAP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered440e4935d5dc4bd1

    discovery-0.44 p=0.233 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.233)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b7aedbd8596b145a4969ba1…
    follows 98f583f5abfe…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8395: TAP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.