Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8275

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8274, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8275
    24 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC

    SESN2

    microglia, braak

    predictionSESN2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered04e4a750bda215d5

    discovery+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.638)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f3bffec6fbfae5d9cc563581…
    follows ef839881f13f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8275: SESN2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SESN2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.