Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8266

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8265, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8266
    24 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC

    COL1A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL1A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered447fd6f7277c3883

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    51d02b241e0a39da1c5d738b…
    follows 81ded6d2888c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8266: COL1A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.034, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.76 (p 2.9e-4, n 18) vs -0.50 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL1A1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up COL1A1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured