Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8255

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.378). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8254, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8255
    24 Oct 2026, 03:53 UTC

    KCNN3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNN3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered72df216cc5c4e615

    discovery-0.34 p=0.378 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.378)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d436f2089956433f17ac931c…
    follows 7a800674cc22…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8255: KCNN3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.19 in astrocytes. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNN3 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up KCNN3 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.75 p 0.0077 (needs p < 2.6e-4)