Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8251

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8250, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8251
    24 Oct 2026, 03:48 UTC

    TRIM6

    microglia, braak

    predictionTRIM6 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9eed98ff50de02ea

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.894 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f905cf6444145dd29964a205…
    follows 8fead04880ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8251: TRIM6 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.17, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM6 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.