Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8246

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.27 p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8245, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8246
    24 Oct 2026, 03:42 UTC

    ALPP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALPP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7816c46d73f924f8

    discovery-0.67 p=0.048 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.048; held-out +0.27 p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    711897a6939f4044d1ea4a51…
    follows ba6a48f8d8a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8246: ALPP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALPP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.