Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8229

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8228, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8229
    24 Oct 2026, 03:20 UTC

    NLGN2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNLGN2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22a02d78750d4164

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    077014e2843e2ef9367444a1…
    follows cb03e569ab6a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8229: NLGN2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.73 (p 6.2e-4, n 18) vs -0.31 in oligodendrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLGN2 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NLGN2 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 2.6e-4)