Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8216

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.045; held-out +0.59 p 0.095). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8215, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8216
    24 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC

    GNAI1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGNAI1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda0a170d8cb40303a

    discovery+0.68 p=0.045 n=9

    replication+0.59 p=0.095 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.68 p 0.045; held-out +0.59 p 0.095)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0da6275ffef67782d3ee0e63…
    follows d5efeaa6bf06…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8216: GNAI1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.73 (p 6.6e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.56 to +0.71, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GNAI1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.