Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0082

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.29, p 0.358). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 81, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0082
    16 Oct 2026, 16:07 UTC

    NDUFS5

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionNDUFS5 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered1ceecb7d5d800fd4

    discovery+0.29 p=0.358 n=28

    replication+0.43 p=0.097 n=27

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.29, p 0.358)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    144fbba850a14b9d85d778b1…
    follows 3ec31bde1826…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0082: NDUFS5 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.061, n 55), 95% CI +0.11 to +0.58. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.41 (p 0.037, n 55). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.42 (p 0.034, n 55). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.052, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for NDUFS5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.