Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8142

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8141, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8142
    24 Oct 2026, 02:06 UTC

    CD274

    microglia, braak

    predictionCD274 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddec9d63d1e9c9b8c

    discovery-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e0e18417c4ecd82f03a39353…
    follows e4c89167055b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8142: CD274 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD274 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.