Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8120

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.760). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8119, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8120
    24 Oct 2026, 01:36 UTC

    P2RY6

    microglia, braak

    predictionP2RY6 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2013ec75e29b551c

    discovery-0.12 p=0.760 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.760)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    576eab846038c296ef9d312a…
    follows 33a10dc1487d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8120: P2RY6 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RY6 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.