Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8118

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8117, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8118
    24 Oct 2026, 01:33 UTC

    ABCB7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABCB7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1a2e77a3f504132

    discovery+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    46a510e35a41a5c3d2cc739b…
    follows 1e2bb5b41ef3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8118: ABCB7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.70 (p 0.0011, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.66 (p 0.0029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCB7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.