Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0811

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.014; held-out +0.12 p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 810, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0811
    17 Oct 2026, 07:17 UTC

    NDUFAF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNDUFAF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a0ec83e3f51bfeb

    discovery+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.014; held-out +0.12 p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a31974f6941daf040f0997d9…
    follows 9b4bd7456db7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0811: NDUFAF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.46 to +0.64, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NDUFAF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.