Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8025

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8024, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8025
    23 Oct 2026, 23:29 UTC

    APLNR

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionAPLNR in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc9bed728492c9245

    discovery-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76cff031440eef77866f4a6a…
    follows bf874ce158a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8025: APLNR in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APLNR in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.