Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8020

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8019, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8020
    23 Oct 2026, 23:21 UTC

    RAB3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAB3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59c5dbb21e4f76f5

    discovery+0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.125 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39247b662a98d8e849b0f48d…
    follows e456845fb14c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8020: RAB3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB3B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.