Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8014

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.10 p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8013, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8014
    23 Oct 2026, 23:13 UTC

    GIT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGIT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54f6646b452a20a6

    discovery-0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.75 p 0.020; held-out +0.10 p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2071f09568d328ce0da9d66a…
    follows 1b67991999af…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8014: GIT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs -0.33 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GIT1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GIT1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.00 p 1.000 (needs p < 2.7e-4)