Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8004

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8003, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8004
    23 Oct 2026, 22:59 UTC

    FGF9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered013cffe066632ff3

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f556833525841665491ab3bd…
    follows dcb9a59948c6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8004: FGF9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.04 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.