Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 8002

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 8001, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 8002
    23 Oct 2026, 22:56 UTC

    B4GALNT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionB4GALNT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered43d3d639d49667c4

    discovery-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication-0.72 p=0.030 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5f436260340e93328f08d985…
    follows 1f77393529bf…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 8002: B4GALNT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0060, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for B4GALNT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.