Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7930

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7929, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7930
    23 Oct 2026, 21:17 UTC

    MFGE8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMFGE8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d1240c41659dcf0

    discovery-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    replication-0.80 p=0.0097 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.05, p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    addc72e02f4170c4233ccd15…
    follows b92ec162d8c2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7930: MFGE8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.73 (p 5.6e-4, n 18) vs -0.42 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MFGE8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MFGE8 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 2.7e-4)