Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7860

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.94 p 1.3e-4; held-out +0.23 p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7859, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7860
    23 Oct 2026, 19:43 UTC

    ITIH4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionITIH4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd4af4e7d05769fe

    discovery-0.94 p=1.3e-4 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.94 p 1.3e-4; held-out +0.23 p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0d17918ccd2a364ce747828b…
    follows 9a3bda88a1a4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7860: ITIH4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ITIH4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.