Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7858

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7857, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7858
    23 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC

    DLK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDLK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2cccb8eab6cdb106

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f977ffcd3ac1d0d6b16ef6f4…
    follows 5ad3052e0c99…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7858: DLK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.