Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7804

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.619). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7803, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7804
    23 Oct 2026, 18:29 UTC

    CEBPA

    microglia, braak

    predictionCEBPA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddbefa6f7054f9bcd

    discovery-0.19 p=0.619 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.619)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    99627df36c6c117e99c17e88…
    follows 74c98c912ecd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7804: CEBPA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEBPA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.