Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0078

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.43, p 0.133). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 77, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0078
    16 Oct 2026, 16:01 UTC

    GRIN2D

    oligodendrocytes, resilience

    predictionGRIN2D in oligodendrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered42d225ad3d1c3e4c

    discovery-0.43 p=0.133 n=29

    replication-0.15 p=0.584 n=26

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.43, p 0.133)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    686c5fc95d77c61dc6c13700…
    follows 03ae3bdf64d0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0078: GRIN2D in oligodendrocytes, resilience

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.084, n 55), 95% CI -0.55 to -0.08. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.30 (p 0.125, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.52 (p 0.0075); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.088, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.052, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for GRIN2D in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.