Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7789

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7788, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7789
    23 Oct 2026, 18:10 UTC

    TNIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf449a34d25552171

    discovery+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.358 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8cd0735b7d2614b50566c3a5…
    follows 76cb9cb86ca3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7789: TNIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.