Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7650

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7649, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7650
    23 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

    SRP54

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSRP54 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered626b402980097b51

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.238 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4dcab3c2bafa1133b706c552…
    follows d9b216088809…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7650: SRP54 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18) vs +0.27 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SRP54 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SRP54 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.45 p 0.110 (needs p < 2.8e-4)