Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7639

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.243). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7638, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7639
    23 Oct 2026, 14:46 UTC

    PRKACB

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPRKACB in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9c01ee4de489a74a

    discovery+0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.243)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    55f36df94abcfa74bb4d25f9…
    follows 17b91b83da30…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7639: PRKACB in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKACB in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.