Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7628

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7627, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7628
    23 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC

    C1R

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC1R in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered981062c081d63640

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.165 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4a623f9b8d8a131ec46223de…
    follows 13b8300c8807…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7628: C1R in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.58 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18) vs -0.43 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1R in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up C1R · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)