Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7611

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7610, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7611
    23 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC

    SLC1A3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC1A3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3548f24dcbe54ca0

    discovery-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.130)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47e15a53a1b148bc973943a4…
    follows 77b6919fdce8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7611: SLC1A3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC1A3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.