Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7604

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7603, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7604
    23 Oct 2026, 13:59 UTC

    FUNDC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFUNDC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered753dec26069e029c

    discovery+0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a96529eaa46df6f649eed9ab…
    follows e6d29b05af17…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7604: FUNDC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.74 (p 4.7e-4, n 18) vs +0.38 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FUNDC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FUNDC1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.20 p 0.477 (needs p < 2.8e-4)