Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 7585

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.438). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 7584, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 7585
    23 Oct 2026, 13:34 UTC

    HSPA2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionHSPA2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4dd152382d80226d

    discovery+0.30 p=0.438 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.438)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d28d0025d64149ea1c4ad380…
    follows 7aeb3317f39c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 7585: HSPA2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.